Española, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

961
FXUS65 KABQ 150610
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1210 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

- Flooding of creeks, streams, and arroyos will be a concern
  through tonight across the area in locations with repeated
  rounds of rainfall. The Animas River and San Juan River near
  Farmington may cause minor flooding impacts.

- Patchy fog will limit visibility to one quarter of a mile at
  times into this morning, particularly in the highlands to the
  east of the central mountain chain, including areas near Las
  Vegas and Clines Corners.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms over much of north
  central NM on today and tonight.

- There is a moderate risk (40-60%) of a first freeze of the
  season for areas in the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains and
  near Reserve Friday and Saturday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low moving
east from central CA into NV, which is creating a persistent
southerly flow of subtropical moisture in the lower boundary layer
across NM and allowing PWATs to continue well above the 90th
percentile. Surface dewpoint temperatures continue to be anomalously
high for the middle of October, with mid 50s to 60 currently
observed in the middle and lower RGV. With surface dewpoints that
high and forcing associated with the approaching upper low, a round
of nocturnal convection is underway across south central NM and is
modeled to progress north through the area into the early morning
hours. A Dense Fog Advisory is currently in effect for the Central
and Northeast Highlands through 16Z, but this may need to be
expanded in area later. Breezy to locally windy conditions will
develop today as southerly low level flow increases in response to
the eastward bound upper low. Another round of showers and storms is
forecast to develop later this afternoon and evening, this time
focusing over the northern mountains and nearby highlands. This area
is included in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on the SPC
day 1 outlook. The 00Z NAM may be over-forecasting the instability
again based on what transpired Tuesday, but the 0-6km bulk shear of
55-65kts is for real and supportive of severe storms. Storms will
have a better chance of continuing overnight Wednesday into Thursday
morning due to increasing forcing associated with the upper low
moving from UT into CO/WY. This setup brings a moderate chance (40-
60%) of severe storms to areas between Taos, Las Vegas and Raton
after midnight which would be a rather rare event in general, but
especially in mid October. Dry air will rotate east under the upper
low circulation and over NM on Thursday, finally bringing an end to
convection across central and western NM. However, will hold onto a
slight chance mention of showers and storms across eastern NM on
Thursday where sufficient low level moisture will reside to fuel a
few showers or storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A weak trailing trough will move over the region Thursday night, but
will have insufficient moisture to produce precipitation. PWATs will
continue the downtrend through Friday night, down to below normal
areawide. The much drier atmosphere will allow for increasing diurnal
temperature ranges and will make if feel much more like fall. This
will be notable both Friday and Saturday mornings when low
temperatures will fall below freezing at a number of western and
north central NM locales. A few locales will experience the first
freeze of the season and a Freeze Warning may be required. The
medium range model solutions are telling a fairly consistent story
for the weekend of weak ridging and increasing pressure heights
bringing a warming trend that will send high temperatures back above
normal most areas by Sunday. The latest model solutions differ with
the handling of an approaching upper level trough early next week
but agree on a windier pattern developing, especially on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A mixed bag of VFR to LIFR conditions prevail across northern and
central NM, with continued deterioration forecast through the
morning hours. KLVS will be the most impacted terminal and be slow
to improve Wednesday. Low probabilities for MVFR or lower at
KABQ/KAEG and KSAF through Wednesday morning. Southerly winds will
pick up areawide Wednesday, with gusts up to between 25-30kts being
common. A round of late day shower and storms will focus over north
central areas Wednesday, with potential for impacts at KLVS and
KSAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days, mainly due to wet antecedent conditions and
the unreceptivity of fuels. However, winds and humidity will
approach critical threshold on Monday as winds ramp up in advance
of an approaching upper level trough. Otherwise, high humidity and
chances for wetting rain will persist through Wednesday night
before the atmosphere begins to dry out on Thursday. Dry
conditions will persist through the weekend with a warming trend
as an upper level ridge moves east over the region. Vent rates
will take a dip and be poor to fair most areas this weekend, with
a stable atmosphere as the ridge moves overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  73  41  60  33 /  30  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  68  37  61  25 /  60  70  10   0
Cuba............................  68  39  61  31 /  60  60   5   0
Gallup..........................  69  31  61  26 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  70  36  61  30 /  10   5   0   0
Grants..........................  74  38  65  29 /  30  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  71  36  64  31 /   5   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  71  46  69  38 /  10  20   0   0
Datil...........................  71  39  65  32 /  10   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  73  38  69  33 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  77  43  72  38 /  10   0   0   0
Chama...........................  62  36  57  25 /  60  80  10   0
Los Alamos......................  65  48  62  38 /  80  80  20   0
Pecos...........................  64  46  63  35 /  60  80  20   5
Cerro/Questa....................  66  44  61  29 /  50  70  20   0
Red River.......................  61  39  57  24 /  50  70  20   5
Angel Fire......................  64  38  60  12 /  50  70  20   5
Taos............................  69  45  64  28 /  50  80  20   0
Mora............................  62  44  64  31 /  60  70  20   5
Espanola........................  73  47  69  33 /  70  80  20   0
Santa Fe........................  69  49  65  36 /  70  80  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  73  47  67  33 /  60  80  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  75  54  68  43 /  40  60  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  77  53  70  42 /  30  50   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  79  48  72  36 /  30  50   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  77  52  70  42 /  40  50   5   0
Belen...........................  79  51  73  41 /  20  30   0   0
Bernalillo......................  78  51  70  39 /  50  60  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  78  48  72  38 /  20  40   0   0
Corrales........................  78  50  71  39 /  40  60   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  78  50  72  40 /  20  40   0   0
Placitas........................  75  51  67  39 /  50  60  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  76  52  70  41 /  40  60   5   0
Socorro.........................  79  53  75  44 /  10  30   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  70  47  63  36 /  40  60  10   0
Tijeras.........................  72  49  65  38 /  40  60  10   0
Edgewood........................  72  48  66  34 /  30  60  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  46  69  32 /  30  50  10   0
Clines Corners..................  67  48  66  34 /  30  60  10   5
Mountainair.....................  72  48  67  37 /  20  40   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  72  49  68  38 /  20  40   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  77  55  73  46 /  20  20   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  71  50  67  39 /  20  20  10   5
Capulin.........................  66  50  67  35 /  10  40  10  20
Raton...........................  67  51  71  33 /  30  40  20  10
Springer........................  69  52  73  34 /  30  50  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  63  49  66  36 /  50  70  20   5
Clayton.........................  74  54  75  45 /   5  10  20  20
Roy.............................  68  53  71  39 /  20  50  20  10
Conchas.........................  76  57  79  43 /  20  40  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  71  55  76  44 /  30  30  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  79  56  80  46 /   5  10  20  20
Clovis..........................  79  55  81  51 /   0   0  20  20
Portales........................  80  56  82  51 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  76  57  79  47 /  10  10  20  20
Roswell.........................  80  59  83  51 /   5   5  20  10
Picacho.........................  75  53  80  47 /  10  10  20  10
Elk.............................  75  52  75  46 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for NMZ223-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11